October logs a double-digit drop in YOY data for total building permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,526,000, -2.4% below the revised September rate of 1,564,000 and -10.1% below the Oct. 2021 rate of 1,698,000. According to the latest housing data from the U.S. Census Bureau, single‐family authorizations in October were at a rate of 839,000, -3.6% below the revised September figure of 870,000.
Billings at architecture firms drop in October
Demand for design services from architecture firms softened considerably in October, according to the American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for October was 47.7 points, the first decline in billings since Jan. 2021 (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm billings). Inquiries into new projects continued to grow in October with a score of 52.3 points, while the value of new design contracts declined, with a score of 48.6 points.
“Economic headwinds have been steadily mounting, and finally led to weakening demand for new projects,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker in the press release. “Firm backlogs are healthy and will hopefully provide healthy levels of design activity against fewer new projects entering the pipeline should this weakness persist.”
Conference Board's U.S. Leading Indicators slip in September
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI)for the U.S. decreased by -0.4% in Sept. 2022 to 115.9 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in August. The LEI is down -2.8% over the six-month period between Mar. 2022 and Sept. 2022, a reversal from its +1.4% growth over the previous six months.
“The U.S. LEI fell again in September and its persistent downward trajectory in recent months suggests a recession is increasingly likely before year end,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director, Economics, at The Conference Board, in the press release. “The six-month growth rate of the LEI fell deeper into negative territory in September, and weaknesses among the leading indicators were widespread.”
