NEMA’s EBCI for Current Conditions Enjoys Dramatic Bounce to the Upside in November

Buoyed by an uptick in the share of NEMA executives who noted better conditions and a drop to zero reports of worse conditions in November, the current component reversed course from last month’s reading of 46.2 points with a dramatic increase to 63.3 points, its highest reading since June of this year.

The gauge’s movement to well into expansion territory came in spite of commentary perhaps best labeled as cautious. The “broken record,” as framed by one NEMA exec, of supply chain and hiring woes continued as the focus of discussion among respondents. Another exec described the “discombobulated and complicated market environment” presenting a mix of peril and opportunity.

The ElectroIndustry Business Conditions Index (EBCI) is a monthly survey of senior executives at electrical manufacturers published by the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA), Rosslyn, VA. Any score over the 50-point level indicates a greater number of panelists see conditions improving than see them deteriorating.

Unlike the current component, which has seen substantial changes over the last few months, the future component barely moved for now the third month in a row, hovering low in expansion territory at 53.3 points, down slightly from 53.8 points in October. A modest majority of respondents indicated that their expectations for conditions in six months were unchanged from what they see now, as slight reductions in the shares of responses expecting either better or worse conditions in the near future failed to move the needle on the overall result. Comments suggested significant uncertainties about the economy’s direction outside the six-month time period framed by the survey question.