Electrical Marketing's Vital Statistics - April 25, 2025 Update

Single-family building permits see mild decline in March

Building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,482,000, +1.6% above the revised February rate of 1,459,000, but +0.2% below the March 2024 rate of 1,485,000. Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of 978,000, -2% below the revised February figure of 998,000.

Conference Board's U.S. leading indicators continue to slip on March

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by -0.7% in March 2025 to 100.5 (2016=100), after a decline of -0.2% (revised up from –0.3%) in February.
“The US LEI for March pointed to slowing economic activity ahead,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, in the press release. “March’s decline was concentrated among three components that weakened amid soaring economic uncertainty ahead of pending tariff announcements: consumer expectations dropped further; stock prices recorded their largest monthly decline since Sept. 2022; and new orders in manufacturing softened. That said, the data does not suggest that a recession has begun or is about to start.
“Still, the Conference Board downwardly revised our U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 to +1.6%, which is somewhat below the economy’s potential. The slower projected growth rate reflects the impact of deepening trade wars, which may result in higher inflation, supply chain disruptions, less investing and spending and a weaker labor market.”

Freight rail traffic holding up well despite tariff concerns

Despite the economic uncertainty caused by tariffs, this key leading economic indicator remains quite positive. Freight rail traffic compiled by the American Association of Railroads measures the amount of raw materials and finished goods being shipped by rail. For the week ending April 12, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 491,908 carloads and intermodal units, up +5.4% YOY.  Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 15 weeks of  2025 was 7,308,756 carloads and intermodal units, a YOY  increase of +5%. Intermodal freight, the largest single category, remains strong with a +8.3% YOY increase.