EM's Leading Economic Indicators - June 27, 2025 Update

Building permits drop again in May

May building permits slid to 1,393,000, -2% below the revised April rate of 1,422,000 and- 1% below the May 2024 rate of 1,407,000. Single-family permits dropped to  898,000, -2.7% below the revised April figure of 923,000. 

AIA architects continue to report slower business conditions

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) remained in negative territory in May with a score of 47.2 points, up from 43.2 points in April. The American Institute of Architects said any score below 50 points indicates a billings decline, although this month’s score indicates that somewhat fewer firms reported a decline in billings in May than in April.
“Business conditions remained sluggish in May, with nonresidential construction activity continuing to decline in several major metro areas,” said Kermit Baker, AIA chief economist, in the press release. “Firms across all specializations reported declining billings this month. However, the pace of decline slowed at firms specializing in multi-family residential projects. These, along with institutional work, are likely to be the first to return to growth when conditions begin to improve.”

Conference Board’s leading indicators drop again in May

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. ticked down by -0.1% in May 2025 to 99 points (2016=100), after declining by -1.4% in April (revised downward from –1.0% originally reported).
"The LEI for the US fell again in May, but only marginally,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, in the press release. “The recovery of stock prices after the April drop was the main positive contributor to the Index.  However, consumers’ pessimism, persistently weak new orders in manufacturing, a second consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance, and a decline in housing permits weighed on the Index, leading to May’s overall decline.
“The Conference Board does not anticipate recession, but we do expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6% this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026.”