Electrical Marketing's Leading Economic Indicators - Aug. 22, 2025 Update

Building permits slide again in July

July building permits were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,354,000, -2.8% below the revised June rate of 1,393,000 and -5.7% below the July 2024 rate of 1,436,000.  Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 870,000, +0.5% above the revised June figure of 866,000.

AIA architects still concerned about billings

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) continues to weaken posting a score of 46.2 points for July, down from 46.8 points  in June, indicating that a majority of firms are still experiencing declining firm billings. Any reading under 50 points in this monthly survey of AIA architects indicates softening business conditions. 
“Business conditions remain challenging for architecture firms nationwide, with billings declining across all regions in July,” said Kermit Baker, AIA's chief economist. “Client inquiries into new projects continue to build. Still, while commercial and institutional sectors show some signs of stability, the multi-family residential sector still is facing significant headwinds.”

Builders still not confident about housing’s near-term future

The latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) says builder sentiment remains in a holding pattern at a low level because of elevated mortgage rates, weak buyer traffic and ongoing supply-side challenges 
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 points in August, down one point from July, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Builder sentiment has now been in negative territory for 16 consecutive months and has hovered at a relatively low reading between 32 points and 34 points since May.
“Housing affordability is central to the outlook for economic growth and inflation,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz, in that release. “Given a slowing housing market and other recent economic data, the Fed’s monetary policy committee should return to lowering the federal funds rate, which will reduce financing costs for housing construction and indirectly help mortgage interest rates.”