Electrical Marketing's Leading Indicators

Purchasing Managers Index spikes 2.3 points in January

Purchasing managers must be feeling downright giddy about the future, as the closely watched PMI broke the 60-point barrier in January. Norbert Ore, chair of the Tempe, Ariz.-based Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said January's 60.8 point performance is the PMI's highest level since May 2004, when the index registered 61.4 percent.

U.S. Leading Indicators look good again in January

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. continued its upward trend in January with a 0.1-percent increase to 112.3 points that follows a revised 0.8 percent increase in December and a 1.1 percent increase in November. Said Ataman Ozyildirim, a Conference Board economist, “With January's slight increase, following two large gains, the U.S. LEI is still pointing to economic expansion in the coming months. Falling housing permits and weakening labor market indicators were barely offset by the continued positive contributions of the financial components. The LEI remains on a rising trend, with its growth rate picking up in recent months. However, current economic conditions, as measured by the coincident economic index, while improving slowly, remain weak.”

ABI slides three points in January

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) had a drop of almost three points in January. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine- to twelve-month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the January ABI rating was 42.5 points, down sharply from a revised reading of 45.4 points in December. This score indicates a continued decline in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry score was 52.5 points, down more than seven points. “Projects are being delayed or cancelled because lending institutions are placing unusually stringent equity requirements on new developments. This is even happening to financially sound companies with strong credit ratings,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker.

The Marketplace : Key Figures

MonthLatest
monthPrevious
monthMonth-
over-month
% changeyear
agoYear-
over-year
% change2008
annualCONSTRUCTION New Construction Put in Place (Billions of dollars, SAAR)² Total DEC 787.88 807.78 -2.5 841.83 -6.4 813.36 Offices DEC 21.44 21.39 0.2 29.36 -27 24.2 Industrial DEC 33.02 33.45 -1.3 43.96 -24.9 38.64 Housing Starts JAN 596 520 14.6 612 -2.6 585 Single-unit JAN 413 417 -1.0 511 -19.2 471 Mobile Homes DEC 40 43 -7.0 50 -20 50 Employment, Construction JAN 5,065 5,391 -6.0 5,197 -2.5 5,526 Employment, electrical DEC 735.2 731.6 0.5 747.1 -1.6 723.2 Hourly Wage DEC 25.47 25.32 0.6 25.29 0.7 25.26 PRODUCTION Industrial Production Index (1967=100)⁵ JAN 95.1 95.2 -0.1 90.5 5.2 92.7 Construction Supplies Production Index⁵ JAN 80.2 80.3 -0.2 74.8 7.2 78.4 Employment, in Electrical Equipment & Supplies Mfg. Production Workers (Thousands)⁴ DEC 138.5 137 1.1 135.9 1.9 136.2 Weekly Hours DEC 43.4 42.8 1.4 40.8 6.4 42.2 Hourly Wage DEC 17.12 16.64 2.9 16.35 4.7 16.5 Electrical Power Output Index (1967=100)⁵ JAN 100.9 102.5 -1.6 101.3 -0.4 100.2 Machine Tool Orders* (Millions of dollars)² DEC 401.78 302.01 33 185.54 116.5 NA Industrial Capacity Utilization (Percent, SA)¹ JAN 74.01 73.85 0.2 69.85 4.2 71.95 TRADE Elec. Mfr. Shipments (Millions of dollars)² DEC 3,314 3,264 1.5 2,835 16.9 NA Elec. Mfr. Inventories (Millions of dollars)² DEC 4,691 4,800 -2.3 4,166 12.6 4,561 Elec. Mfr. I/S Ratio DEC 1.416 1.471 -3.7 1.469 -3.7 1.478 Elec. Mfr. New Orders (Millions of dollars)² DEC 3,978 3,857 3.1 2,747 44.8 NA Elec. Mfr. Unfilled Orders (Millions of dollars)² DEC 17,214 16,550 4.0 13,963 23.3 15,447 Exports, Electrical Machinery (f.a.s. millions of dollars)² DEC 6,653.00 6,394.00 4.1 5,954.00 11.7 76,736.00 U.S. Dollar vs. Other Major Currencies (1973=100)⁵ JAN 98.8 99.9 -1.2 101.3 -2.5 102 PRICES & INTEREST RATES Industrial Commodites Wholesale Price Index (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1967=100) JAN 193.7 191.5 1.1 184.6 4.9 187.1 Electrical Price Index (Electrical Marketing, 1997=100) JAN 141.7 141.3 0.3 137.8 2.9 138.9 Construction Materials Wholesale Price Index (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982=100) JAN 207.9 207 0.4 202.3 2.8 205.7 Copper Price (Metals Week, cents per pound) FEB 459.07 438.43 4.7 315.92 45.3 346.47 Prime Rate⁵ JAN 3.3 3.3 0 3.3 0 3.3 Federal Funds Rate⁵ JAN 0.2 0.2 0 0.1 0.1 0.2 Mortgage Rate⁷ JAN 4.8 4.7 0 5 -0.3 4.7 *Several series related to employment are now being reported on a NAICS basis. Because of this change, some numbers are not directly comparable to previously reported data, but are consistent in year-over-year comparisons and comparisons shown in the table.

Sources: ¹McGraw-Hill Construction/Dodge; ²Dept. of Commerce; ³Manufactured Housing Institute; ⁴Dept. of Labor; ⁵Federal Reserve Board; ⁶The Association for Manufacturing Technology; ⁷Federal Home Loan Bank Board.

Note: Some figures shown — prime rate, for example — are averaged for month. NYA-not yet available SA-seasonally adjusted. SAAR-seasonally adjusted annual rate. Source for chart: Global Insight.

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