NEMA’s EBCI Index Sees Sizeable Drop in Current and Future Economic Outlook

After a momentary bump into expansionary territory in February, followed by a brief hold at “unchanged” last month, the current conditions component signaled cooling in April with a nearly seven-point retreat to 43.3 points.

The ElectroIndustry Business Conditions Index (EBCI) is a monthly survey of senior executives at electrical manufacturers published by the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA), Rosslyn, VA. Any score over the 50-point level indicates a greater number of panelists see conditions improving than see them deteriorating.

The share of participants reporting “unchanged” conditions declined precipitously this month, and although several respondents noted “better” conditions, many more indicated that conditions were “worse” in April. Comments displayed evidence of this dichotomy as one described “slowing demand across most segments,” even as another declared “records and more records.”

Following a similar path — from solidly expansionary two months ago, then remaining “unchanged” in March— the future conditions component also slid into the range suggesting a slowdown ahead. This change is marked by a 10-point drop, resulting in an April reading of 40 points. Although the data suggest a turbulent future, the comments received were, at worst mixed. They highlighted headwinds to an otherwise positive outlook, while also noting strong backlogs and an expected boost from infrastructure and efficiency spending.