Electrical Marketing's Leading Indicators - October 22, 2021 Update

Building permits slump in September

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,589,000, -7.7% below the revised August rate of 1,721,000, but virtually unchanged from the Sept. 2020 rate of 1,589,000. Single‐family authorizations in September were at a rate of 1,041,000, -0.9% below the revised August figure of 1,050,000.

Texas sees slow but steady increase in active drilling rigs

These days the Baker-Hughes rig count seldom logs a weekly increase of any more than two or three rotary oil rigs. But since the beginning of the year Texas had 127 more rigs operating in mid-October than it did in Oct. 2020. The total count for the state is 250, a +103% increase since Oct. 2020. The state’s Permian Basin, which extends into eastern New Mexico, accounted for a large part of that increase with 137 more rigs online.

AIA's ABI inches up in September

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for September was 56.6 points, up one point from August’s score of 55.6 points. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings from the prior month. During September, scoring for both the new project inquiries and design contracts moderated slightly, but remained in positive territory, posting scores of 61.8 points and 54.7 points respectively.

“The ABI scores over the last eight months continue to be among the highest ever seen in the immediate post-recession periods that have been captured throughout the index’s history,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, in the press release. “However, it’s unlikely that revenue increases at architecture firms can sustain this pace. Given that growth in both new design contracts and project inquiries have moderated in recent months, we expect to see a similar path for the ABI.”

U.S. freight rail traffic sees weekly dip but posts strong year-over-year data

According to the American Association of Railroads (AAR), total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 506,642 carloads and intermodal units for the week ending Oct. 9, down -2.6% compared with the same week last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 40 weeks of 2021 was 20,328,389 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of +8.7 % compared to last year.