Electrical Marketing's Leading Indicators

PMI Index drops below 60 points. While still comfortably above the 50-point mark indicating a growth environment, the Purchasing Managers Index published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Tempe, Ariz., dropped less than a point to 59.7 points in May.

“The manufacturing sector grew for the 10th consecutive month during May,” said Norbert Ore, chair of ISM's Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The rate of growth as indicated by the PMI is driven by continued strength in new orders and production. Employment continues to grow as manufacturers have added to payrolls for six consecutive months.”

Help wanted advertising levels off. Online advertised vacancies were unchanged in May at 4,149,000, following a 223,000 gain in April, according to the Conference Board. “After the large 223,000 April increase in online advertised vacancies that kicked off the spring hiring season, employers essentially held steady in May,” said June Shelp, V.P. at the Conference Board. “As the economy comes out of the recession, online demand has risen in a wide variety of occupations. Occupations commonly associated with office work (administrative, legal and computer jobs) as well as manufacturing and construction vacancies are improving but remain below their pre-recession levels, while online demand for workers in sales, education and training, entertainment, food preparation and service, health-care support and personal care are all at or above their pre-recession 2007 levels.”

Builder confidence declines in June. Snapping a string of two consecutive monthly gains, builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes fell back to February levels, before the beginning of the home buyer tax credit-related surge, according to results of the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The HMI dropped five points to 17 in June. “The home buyer tax credit did its job in stoking spring sales and we expected a temporary pull back in the builders' outlook after the credit expired at the end of April,” said NAHB Chairman Bob Jones, a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich.

The Marketplace : Key Figures

MonthLatest monthPrevious monthMonth-over-month % changeYear agoYear-over-year % change2009 annualCONSTRUCTION New Construction Put in Place (Billions of dollars, SAAR)² Offices APR 27.8 28.29 -1.7 43.72 -36.4 40.68 Industrial APR 57.81 56.27 2.7 84.13 -31.3 74.61 Total APR 869.09 845.93 2.7 971.36 -10.5 937.58 Housing Starts (Thousands of units, SAAR)² Single-unit MAY 468 565 -17.2 406 15.3 442 Total MAY 593 659 -10 550 7.8 554 Mobile Home Shipments³ (Thousands of units, SAAR) APR 54 54 0 49 10.2 50 Employment, Construction Workers (Thousands)⁴ MAY 5,643 5,492 2.7 6,150 -8.2 6,037 Employment, Electrical Contractors (Thousands)⁴ APR 728.9 723.8 0.7 794.6 -8.3 795.8 Hourly Wage, Electrical Contractors⁴ APR 25.19 25.26 -0.3 24.33 3.5 24.76 PRODUCTION Industrial Production Index (1967=100)⁵ APR 102.3 101.5 0.8 97.2 5.2 98.2 Construction Supplies Production Index⁵ (1977=100-SA) APR 84.3 82.1 2.8 82 2.9 82.3 Employment in Electrical Equipment & Supplies Mfg. Production workers (Thousands)⁴ APR 141.8 140.6 0.9 146.7 -3.3 146.7 Weekly hours APR 41.7 41.5 0.5 38.5 8.3 39.6 Hourly wage APR 16.02 16.33 -1.9 15.71 2 16.11 Electric Power Output Index (1967=100)⁵ APR 105.8 107.1 -1.2 108.5 -2.5 107.5 Machine Tool Orders* (Millions of dollars)⁶ APR 211.63 232.38 -8.9 98.93 113.9 - Industrial Capacity Utilization (Percent, SA)¹ APR 71.25 70.43 0.8 65.9 5.3 66.94 TRADE Electrical Mfrs' Shipments APR 2,897 2,899 -0.1 2,842 1.9 - Electrical Mfrs' Inventories (Millions of dollars, SA)² APR 4,320 4,260 1.4 4,681 -7.7 4,475 Electrical Mfrs' Inventory-to-Shipments Ratio APR 1.491 1.469 1.5 1.647 -9.5 1.596 Electrical Mfrs' New Orders (Millions of dollars, SA)² APR 3,022 3,326 -9.1 2,726 10.9 - Electrical Mfrs' Unfilled Orders (Millions of dollars, SA)² APR 14,926 14,801 0.8 14,323 4.2 14,253 Exports, Electrical Machinery (f.a.s. value in millions of dollars)² APR 6,311.00 6,753.00 -6.5 4,811.00 31.2 63,949.00 U.S. Dollar vs. Other Major Currencies (1973=100)⁵ MAY 104.6 101.7 2.9 106.4 -1.7 105.6 PRICES & INTEREST RATES Industrial Commodities Wholesale Price Index (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1967=100) MAY 187.4 186.9 0.3 172 9 174.9 Electrical Price Index (Electrical Marketing, 1997=100) MAY 138.5 139.3 -0.5 132.8 4.3 133.1 Construction Materials Wholesale Price Index (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982=100) MAY 207.4 206 0.7 202.8 2.3 202.9 Copper Prices (Metals Week, cents per pound) JUN 294.86 314.58 -6.3 232.34 26.9 239.28 Prime Rate⁵ MAY 3.3% 3.3% 0.0 3.3% 0.0 **3.3% Federal Funds Rate⁵ MAY 0.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.2% 0.0 **0.2% Mortgage Rate⁷ MAY 4.9% 5.1% -0.2 4.9% 0.0 5.0% *Several series related to employment are now being reported on a NAICS basis. Because of this change, some numbers are not directly comparable to previously reported data, but are consistent in year-over-year comparisons and comparisons shown in the table.

Sources: ¹McGraw-Hill Construction/Dodge; ²Dept. of Commerce; ³Manufactured Housing Institute; ⁴Dept. of Labor; ⁵Federal Reserve Board; ⁶The Association for Manufacturing Technology; ⁷Federal Home Loan Bank Board. Note: Some figures shown — prime rate, for example — are averaged for month. NYA — not yet available

SA-seasonally adjusted. SAAR-seasonally adjusted annual rate. Source for chart: Global Insight.

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