Leading Economic Index Turns Upward After Last Month’s Pause

The Conference Board said the U.S. leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in March. The leading index turned up again in March after pausing in February. The leading index has now increased by 4.4 percent from its most recent low in March 2003, although growth has slowed somewhat in recent months. The upturn in the leading index since March 2003 signalled stronger economic growth, and correspondingly, real GDP growth picked up to a 6.2 percent annual rate in the second half of 2003. The current growth rate of the leading index is signaling a continuation of relatively strong economic growth in the near term. The leading index now stands at 115.3 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index remained unchanged in February and increased 0.4 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the leading index increased 1.8 percent, with seven out of 10 components advancing.