NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index Shows Solid Increases in September

NAHB sees some signs of improvement in the residential market.
Oct. 23, 2025
2 min read
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NAHB / Housing Market

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), sees reason to cheer in the most recent (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

Even as builders continue to grapple with market and macroeconomic uncertainty, sentiment levels in the HMI posted a solid gain in October as future sales expectations surpassed the 50-point break-even mark for the first time since last January.

NAHB said builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 37 points in October, up five points from September and the highest reading since April.
“The HMI gain in October is a positive signal for 2026 as our forecast is for single-family housing starts to gain ground next year,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz, in the press release. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell from just above 6.5% at the start of September to 6.3% in early October. Combined with anticipated further easing by the Fed, builders expect a slightly improving sales environment, albeit one in which persistent supply-side cost factors remain a challenge.”

With the government shutdown continuing and an expectation of no Census housing construction data for September being published this week, Dietz added, “Based on modeling of historical data, the October increase for the HMI suggests an approximate +3% increase for the September single-family permit data on an annual rate basis. Our model suggests a +2% to +4% range for the increase based on the statistical relationship.”
In a sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 38% of builders reported cutting prices in October. This share has alternated between 37% and 39% since June. Meanwhile, the average price reduction rose to 6% in October after averaging 5% for several months previously.

All the HMI subindices rose in October. The component measuring current sales conditions increased four points to 38 points, and the index gauging future sales jumped nine points to 54 points. The gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a four-point gain to 25 points.