Electrical Marketing's Leading Economic Indicators - Feb. 27, 2026 Update

Total building permits see +4.3% monthly increase in December

December building permits were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,448,000, +4.3% above the revised November rate of 1,388,000, but -2.2% below the December 2024 rate of 1,480,000.
U.S. single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 881,000, -1.7% below the revised November figure of 896,000. An estimated 1,425,200 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2025, -3.6% below the 2024 figure of 1,478,000.

AIA’s Architecture Billings Index sees big drop in January

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dropped to 43.8 points in January, down from 47.1 points in December, signaling a greater number of firms experienced a decline in billings compared to the previous month.
In January, inquiries for new projects dropped for the  first time since April 2025, alongside a decline in newly signed design contracts, as client uncertainty persisted and new projects tended to be smaller in scale. Business conditions remained challenging across all specializations, with multi-family residential firms seeing a slower rate of decline but no billings growth since mid-2022.
“Overall economic conditions remain subdued, with revised 2025 employment data revealing smaller gains than anticipated and nonfarm payrolls increasing by just 130,000 in Jan. 2026,” said AIA Chief Economist, Richard Branch in the press release. “That said, construction employment was a bright spot, adding 33,000 jobs, including 25,000 in nonresidential specialty trades, signaling a positive shift after stagnant growth last year. Architectural services also showed resilience, with a net gain of 1,300 positions in 2025 despite early declines and a slight dip in December.”

Conference Board's leading indicators for the U.S. point to a weaker economy

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, said in the press release, “Overall, the LEI signals weaker economic activity at the start of this year. The Conference Board projects a slowdown in growth in Q4 2025 and early 2026, with GDP set to expand by +2.1% YOY in 2026, from a forecasted +2.2% in 2025.”