AIA architects see some improvement in billings, but overall decline in activity continues
Business conditions at architecture firms remained soft as the fourth quarter of 2025 began, according to the latest data from the American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) Architecture Billings Index (ABI).
The ABI score rose to 47.6 points in October from 43.3 points in September, indicating that while a majority of firms still saw a decline in their billings, the share was smaller than it was last month. Inquiries into new projects also saw their most significant increase in a year and a half. Despite this positive movement, challenges persist as the value of new design contracts decreased again.
“Architecture firms estimate that billings declined modestly this year. Unfortunately, they are not expecting a significant turnaround in 2026,” said Kermit Baker, AIA chief economist in the press release. “About a third of firms project their billings will increase this coming year, and a slightly higher share expect them to remain about the same. Firms with a multi-family specialization are the most optimistic about prospects for 2026.”
Conference Board’s U.S. Leading Indicators drop in September
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by -0.3% in Sept. 2025 to 98.3 points, after also declining by -0.3% in August (upwardly revised from an originally reported -0.5% decline). Overall, the LEI fell by -2.1% over the six months between March and Sept. 2025, a faster rate of decline than its -1.3% contraction over the previous six-month period (Sept. 2024 to March 2025).
“The U.S. LEI fell again in September, marking a second consecutive decline,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, the Conference Board’s senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, in the press release. “Weakening expectations from consumers and businesses led the overall contraction in the Index.
The LEI suggests slowing economic activity at the end of 2025 and into early 2026, with GDP weakening after strong mid-year consumer spending and Q4 disruptions amid the federal government shutdown. Overall, growth remains fragile and uneven as businesses adjust to tariff changes and softer consumer momentum. The Conference Board expects GDP to expand by 1.8% in 2025, before falling to 1.5% in 2026.”
