Electrical Marketing's Leading Economic Indicators - Sept. 19, 2025 Update

Building permits drop again in August

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,312,000, - 3.7% below the revised July rate of 1,362,000 and -11.1% below the August 2024 rate of 1,476,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 856,000, -2.2% below the revised July figure of 875,000.

Dodge survey turns bullish in August

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased +7.5% in August to 301.4 (2000=100) from the downwardly revised July reading of 279.9 points. Over the month, commercial planning expanded +8.7% while institutional planning grew +5.4%. Year-to-date, the DMI is up +30% from the average reading over the same period in 2024.  
“The DMI continues to point to stronger construction activity in late 2026 or early 2027 within specific sectors,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network, in the press release. “Because this Index uses a three-month moving average, last month’s strong activity sustained this month’s positive gains despite a pullback in the raw, unadjusted data.
"Following months of uncertainty caused by tariff concerns, owners and developers have started progressing with projects while accepting higher costs. Given the persistent economic and fiscal uncertainty, volatility in planning activity will remain high.”

NAHB September survey points to low builder confidence

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 points in September, unchanged from the August reading, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). While builder sentiment has hovered at a relatively low reading between 32 points and 34 points since May, builders expressed optimism that a more favorable interest rate climate could bring hesitant buyers off the sidelines in the final quarter of 2025.
“While builders continue to contend with rising construction costs, a recent drop in mortgage interest rates over the past month should help spur housing demand,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, NC.