EM's Leading Economic Indicators - August 21 Update

Single-family building permit authorizations in July were at a rate of 894,000, +2.5% above the revised June figure of 872,000.

Building permits have a better month in July

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,443,000, +5% above the revised June rate of 1,374,000 and +3.1% above the July 2025 rate of 1,400,000.
Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 894,000, +2.5% above the revised June figure of 872,000.  Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 490,000 in July.

 

No relief in sight for architects according to latest AIA Billings Index

The July score for the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI)  published monthly by the Architects Institute of America (AIA) was 46.6 points, signaling a modest decline from June. Any reading below 50 points signals a decline in business conditions for architects.
This ongoing slump in business conditions has now stretched to nearly three and a half years, the longest in the ABI’s history. Clients continue to show interest, as inquiries for new projects rose again in July, though more slowly than in June. At the same time, the value of newly signed design contracts fell further after coming close to growth the previous month.
Business conditions remained soft at architecture firms in all four regions of the country in July. Firms in the Northeast reported the weakest conditions for the second straight month. The three other regions saw the pace of decline ease slightly. Billings fell across every specialization. Firms with multi-family residential and institutional specializations posted slight growth earlier this year but have since seen conditions soften. Firms with a commercial and industrial specialization have not reported a rise in billings since July 2022.
“Macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on the built environment,” said AIA Chief Economist Richard Branch in the press release. “High oil prices are putting upward pressure on inflation and may lead to even higher rates in the back half of the year. This will put additional pressure on developers and may lead to a further weakening in billings.”