AIA 2026 Consensus Forecast Calls for Modest +1% Boost in Nonresidential Spending

The American Institute of Architects’ latest Consensus Construction Forecast expects a modest +1% increase in overall building spending for 2026, rising to just +2.2% in 2027.  
“Spending on nonresidential building over the second half of last year was disappointing,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, in the press release. “As of mid-year last year, members of the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel were projecting that spending on buildings would be up almost +2% for 2025, followed by a similar gain this year. Now this modest forecast gain looks instead to have been a decline of a similar magnitude, with disappointing results across the board.”
While the overall outlook is flat, performance varies significantly by category. Spending on commercial facilities is expected to rise by +3% this year, followed by a +3.5% increase in 2027, according to the Consensus Construction Forecast.
In contrast, manufacturing spending is projected to decline by -3.9% this year, with an additional -0.9% drop next year. Institutional facilities are anticipated to see steady growth, with spending increasing +2.7% this year and +2.8% in 2027.
AIA said in the press release announcing the forecasts that data centers are expected to experience strong growth over the next two years, while office spending, excluding data centers, is projected to decline sharply during the same period. Retail facilities, including warehouses, are forecast to see minimal growth this year, with only modest gains in 2027. Institutional categories, known for more stable spending, show mixed results. Health-care facilities are projected to achieve mid-single-digit growth this year and next, while spending on education and amusement and recreation facilities is expected to remain nearly flat over both years.