Electrical Marketing's Leading Economic Indicators - July 25, 2025 Update
Building permits stay soft in June
Building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,397,000, +0.2% above the revised May rate of 1,394,000, but -4.4% below the June 2024 rate of 1,461,000. Single-family authorizations in June were at a rate of 866,000, -3.7% below the revised May figure of 899,000.
Conference Board's Leading Indicators remain in the red in June
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by -0.3% in June 2025 to 98.8 points, after no change in May.
“The U.S. LEI fell further in June,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI. But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance.”
AIA Billings Index continues downward trend in June
The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) published by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) dropped -0.4 points in June to 46.8 points, as more firms reported a decrease in billing. Inquiries into new projects increased for the second consecutive month and grew at the strongest pace since last fall with a score of 53.6 points, indicating clients are starting to send out RFPs and initiate conversations with architecture firms about potential projects after a lull since mid-winter.
These inquiries do not necessarily translate into actual projects, as the value of newly signed design contracts declined for the 16th consecutive month in June. AIA said it's unlikely firm billings will return to positive territory until the value of new design contracts also starts to increase again.
“Business conditions were soft nationwide in June, with a slight billing increase in the South for the first time since October,” said Kermit Baker, AIA chief economist, in the press release. “Other regions saw declining billings, though at a slower pace. While all specializations experienced softer billings, the decline slowed for commercial/industrial and institutional firms. Multi-family firms faced the weakest conditions, with further declines.”
