Electrical Marketing’s Leading Economic Indicators

Aug. 24, 2015
“On top of what has been a flurry of design activity in recent months, some architects are reporting a break in the logjam created by clients placing projects on hold for indefinite periods, which bodes well for business conditions in the months ahead,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker.

Purchasing Managers Index drops slightly in July. The July 2015 Purchasing Managers Index published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, Tempe, Ariz., registered 52.7%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage point below the June reading of 53.5%. The New Orders Index registered 56.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from the reading of 56% in June. The Production Index registered 56%, two percentage points above the June reading of 54% percent. Comments from the panel reflect a combination of optimism mixed with uncertainties about international markets and the impacts of the continuing decline in oil prices, said Bradley Holcomb, chair of ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

Architecture Billings Index drops a point in July. The American Institute of Architects (AIA), Washington, D.C., reported the July ABI score was 54.7, down a point from a mark of 55.7 in June. This score still reflects an increase in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 63.7, up slightly from a reading of 63.4 the previous month. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine- to twelve-month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending.

“On top of what has been a flurry of design activity in recent months, some architects are reporting a break in the logjam created by clients placing projects on hold for indefinite periods, which bodes well for business conditions in the months ahead,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker. “There is some uneasiness in the design community that rapid growth in construction costs could escalate beyond development capital and municipal budgets, which could trigger some contraction in the marketplace down the road.”

Building permits slide in July. Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,119,000, 16.3%, below the revised June rate of 1,337,000, but 7.5% above the July 2014 estimate of 1,041,000, according the U.S. Commerce Dept.’s most recent building data. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 679,000, 1.9% below the revised June figure of 692,000.