The Dodge Momentum Index Declines -7% in February Over Concerns on Costs & Geopolitics

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) issued by Dodge Construction Network declined -7.3% in February to 250 points (2000=100) from the downwardly revised January reading of 269.8. Over the month, commercial planning fell -8.9%, and institutional planning momentum slowed by -4.%.
The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.  
“Planning momentum continued to normalize in February after a surge in activity in the back half of 2025,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Elevated risks around costs, labor and geopolitics will continue to constrain builder confidence in the near-term, but the robust planning pipeline suggests an acceleration in construction spending in 2027.” 
On the commercial side, planning momentum slowed across all commercial sectors apart from warehouses. Within institutional planning, all sectors slowed down with public buildings facing the largest contraction. Despite widespread declines, project momentum for retail stores, recreational buildings, data centers and healthcare facilities remain elevated. Year-over-year, the DMI was up +18.7% when compared to Feb. 2025. The commercial segment was up +12.3% (+4.4% when data centers are removed) and the institutional segment was up +34% over the same period.  
A total of 23 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning throughout February. The largest commercial projects included the $500-million CyrusOne Data Center in Whitney, TX; the $448-million TX12 Data Center in San Antonio, TX; and Buildings 5 and 6 of the QTS DFW2 Data Center in Wilmer, TX, each valued at $290 million. The largest institutional projects to enter planning were the $400-million Orange County Convention Center Grand Concourse expansion (Phase 5A) in Orlando, FL; a $254-million school replacement project in Upper Marlboro, MD; and the $250-million Langley F-22 Dormitory Building in McLean, VA.