David Wyss chief economist, Standard & Poors, New York, agreed with other presenters at the 2010 McGraw-Hill Construction Forecast that economic conditions for the overall U.S. economy have pretty much bottom out – but that the construction industry as a whole still has a tough year ahead.
While cautioning attendees that it was going to be a “slow crawl” back to more prosperous economic times, Wyss said in his presentation, “The Economic Outlook: Who'll Stop the Rain,” “I think bad things have stopped happening, but good things haven't quite started happening yet.”
Some takeaways from Wyss' presentation:
Because the stock market leads the overall economy by four-to-six months, real recovery should begin in 2Q 2010.
The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be back in positive territory by 3Q 2009.
The global recession was probably the most “synchronized recession” in world history, with global markets plunging in lock-step. Wyss puckishly called it an “exercise in ‘synchronized sinking.'” “China and India had the best performance because they are not as tied to global markets,” he said.
The real estate market is methodically working its way through hundreds of thousands of units of excess supply. But any unexpected surge in foreclosed properties in the four states that had the biggest housing bubbles – Arizona, California Florida and Nevada, market by the bubble will slow down the recovery.
For the full story on the McGraw-Hill Conference, check out this week's issue of Electrical Marketing, which will be available to paying subscriber on Oct. 23.