The Conference Board said the U.S. leading index increased 1.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.7 percent in January. The leading index increased sharply in January, and it has increased in five of the last six months. The leading index increased 2.3 percent from July 2005 to January 2006 (a 4.7 percent annual rate). The strengths and weaknesses among the leading indicators were balanced through mid-2005, and the strength has become somewhat more widespread since August. Main contributors to January’s large gain were initial claims for unemployment insurance, real money supply, and building permits.
The leading index fluctuated around a more moderate upward trend since mid-2004. At the same time, real GDP growth slowed to a 1.1 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2005 (according to advance estimates). The current behavior of the leading index suggests that the sluggish growth in the fourth quarter should not persist, and economic growth is likely to pick up in the near term.
The leading index now stands at 140.1 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in December and increased 0.9 percent in November. During the six-month span through January, the leading index increased 2.3 percent, with nine out of 10 components advancing.