Leading Economic Index Falls For A Fourth Consecutive Month

Nov. 5, 2004
The Conference Board said the U.S. leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index remained unchanged in September.

The Conference Board said the U.S. leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index remained unchanged in September. The leading index fell again in September, the fourth consecutive decline, and the weakness in the last four months has become more widespread. However, these declines in the leading index have not been large enough nor have they persisted long enough to signal an end to the current economic expansion.

While the leading index is not yet signaling a downturn, the growth rate of the leading index has slowed below its long-term trend growth rate, which is consistent with real GDP continuing to grow in the near term, but more slowly than its long-term trend rate.

The leading index now stands at 115.6 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in September and decreased 0.3 percent in August. During the six-month span through September, the leading index decreased 0.2 percent, with three out of 10 components advancing.