No great news in Electrical Marketing’s leading economic indicators, with the exception of the Architecture Billing Index published by the American Institute of Architects (AIA), which enjoyed a dramatic spike in the number of inquiries received by architectural firms last month (see article on page 4).
Institute for Supply Management’s March PMI still wallowing in negative territory. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) moved up a half-point in March to 36.3 points from 35.8 points in February, remaining deep in negative territory. However, Norbert J. Ore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, was optimistic about the jump in new orders. “The New Orders Index offers greater encouragement, as it rose above the 40-percent mark for the first time in seven months,” he said. A reading above 50 percent indicates the manufacturing economy is generally expanding.
March building permits still soft across all regions. The Northeast region was hit hardest, with total building permits last month down 24.3 percent. Other notable soft spots include the Southern region, where total permits were down 10.3 percent, and the Midwest, where single-family permits were down 20 percent. The West region showed no change in total permits and modest decline of 1.5 percent in single-family permits last month.
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators decline again in March. This index has not risen in the past nine months. Building permits, stock prices and the index of supplier deliveries made large negative contributions to the index this month, more than offsetting continued positive contributions from real money supply and the yield spread. Three of the ten indicators that make up this index increased in March. The positive contributors were real money supply, interest rate spread and the index of consumer expectations. The negative contributors were building permits, stock prices, index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), average weekly manufacturing hours, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted) and manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods.