Electrical Marketing’s Leading Indicators

May 21, 2010
AIA’s Billing Index remains on growth track in April. For the third straight month, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) published by the American Institute of Architects (AIA), Washington, D.C., has gone up

AIA’s Billing Index remains on growth track in April. For the third straight month, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) published by the American Institute of Architects (AIA), Washington, D.C., has gone up. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine-to-twelve-month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The AIA reported the April ABI rating was 48.4 points, up from a reading of 46.1 points the previous month. Although this score reflects a continued decline in demand for design services (any score above 50 points indicates an increase in billings), it’s the highest score since January 2008, when revenue at architecture firms headed into recession. The new projects inquiry index was 59.6 points.

“It appears that the design and construction industry may be nearing an actual recovery phase,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker. “The economic landscape is improving, although not across the board, but doing so at a gradual pace. It’s quite possible that we will finally see positive business conditions in the foreseeable future.”

PMI Index top 60 points. A 0.8-point gain in April pushed the Purchasing Managers Index to a very bullish 60.4 point reading in April. Any reading above 50 points indicated a growth environment. Said Norbert Ore, chair of the Tempe, Ariz.-based Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, “The manufacturing sector grew for the ninth consecutive month during April. The rate of growth as indicated by the PMI is the fastest since June 2004 when the index hit 60.5 percent. Manufacturers continue to see extraordinary strength in new orders. Overall, the recovery in manufacturing continues quite strong, and the signs are positive for continued growth.”

Leading Indicators drop slightly in April. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in April, following a 1.3 percent gain in March, and a 0.4 percent rise in February.

Said Ken Goldstein, an economist for the Conference Board, “These latest results suggest a recovery that will continue through the summer, although it could lose a little steam. Meanwhile, the coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, has been improving since mid-2009.”