Electrical Marketing’s Leading Economic Indicators - September 20, 2013

Sept. 20, 2013
Two of the economic indicators Electrical Marketing tracks to assess the electrical industry's prospects in the near future are looking strong -- architectural billings and the Purchasing Managers' Index are both looking good. Building permits dipped, but remain 11% above year-ago levels.

Building permits dip 3.8% in August. The Aug. 2013 rate for building permits were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 918,000, 3.8% below the revised July rate of 954,000, but 11% above the August 2012 estimate of 827,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 627,000; 3% above the revised July figure of 609,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 268,000 in August.

Architects feeling a bit more optimistic as ABI shows solid increase in August. The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) published monthly by the American Institute of Architects (AIA), Washington, D.C., showed more acceleration in the growth of design activity nationally. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine- to twelve-month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. AIA reported the August ABI score was 53.8 points, up from a mark of 52.7 points in July. This score reflects an increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 points indicates an increase in billings).

“As business conditions at architecture firms have improved eleven out of the past twelve months, it’s fair to say that the design professions are in a recovery mode,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, “This upturn signals an impending turnaround in nonresidential construction activity, but a key component to maintaining this momentum is the ability of businesses to obtain financing for real estate projects, and for a resolution to the federal government budget and debt ceiling impasse.”

PMI has another stellar month. It looks like purchasing managers are feeling more optimistic, too, as the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) registered 55.7 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from July’s reading of 55.4 percent. August’s PMI reading, the highest of the year, indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month. Published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, Tempe, Ariz., in its Manufacturing Business Survey, the PMI is considered to be a good early indicator of purchasing activity in the industrial sector.