The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects solar electric generation will account for 7% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2025, up from 4% in 2023, according to its recently published Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Developers have reported that almost 80 gigawatts of solar power will come online over the next two years, increasing U.S. solar generating capacity by 84% and making solar the leading source of growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025.
“We are experiencing a significant shift in U.S. electric generation, as solar generation grows rapidly, taking market share from coal and tempering the growth in natural gas usage,” said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis in the press release. Other highlights from the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook include:
U.S. oil and natural gas production
Despite slower growth, EIA expects that U.S. crude oil production will establish new records of 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and over 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025. It also expects annual U.S. natural gas production to establish new records in 2024 and 2025.
Gasoline prices. EIA expects gas prices to fall from an average $3.52 per gallon in 2023 to approximately $3.40 per gallon in 2024 and to about $3.20 per gallon in 2025.
Crude oil prices
EIA expects crude oil prices will remain relatively unchanged this year as OPEC+ continues to limit crude oil production. It’s forecasting that prices will fall to $79 per barrel in 2025 as production growth outpaces slowing demand.
Coal markets
EIA believes coal production will drop by 26% over the next two years, reaching 430 million short tons in 2025, its lowest level since the early 1960s.
Natural gas prices
EIA is forecasting that the spot price of natural gas will rise to an average of $3 per million British thermal units in 2025, up from $2.54 million British thermal units in 2023. EIA says U.S. production growth will limit big price increases.