The Conference Board said the U.S. leading index increased 0.9 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.8 percent in October. The leading index increased sharply in October offsetting the large decrease in September, which partly reflects the economic impact of the hurricanes which hit the Gulf region in late August and September. In addition, October’s increase was widespread among the leading indicators.
The leading index has slowed steadily since mid-2004. The leading index has been fluctuating around a relatively flat trend throughout 2005 and is now essentially at the same level as mid-2005. Although it is still difficult to distinguish between the impact of the hurricanes and overall economic conditions, the recent behavior of the leading index is still consistent with the economy continuing to expand more moderately in the near term.
The leading index now stands at 137.9 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.8 percent in September and remained unchanged in August. During the six-month span through October, the leading index increased 1.2 percent, with seven out of 10 components advancing.