The Conference Board said the U.S. leading index decreased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in August.
The leading index fell again in August, the third consecutive decline, and the weakness in the last three months has become more widespread. However, these declines in the leading index have not been long enough nor deep enough to signal an end to the upward trend in the leading index underway since March 2003.
While the leading index is still on an upward trend, its current growth rate has slowed into the range of 1 to 2 percent (annual rate). This compares to an average growth rate of the leading index since 1959 of about 1.5 percent and a 3.5 percent average growth rate of real GDP. The slower recent growth rate of the leading index is consistent with real GDP continuing to increase, but at or slightly below its long-term trend.
The leading index now stands at 115.7 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.3 percent in August and decreased 0.3 percent in July. During the six-month span through August, the leading index increased 0.7 percent.