Although up from a near-record low a month ago, NEMA's January Electroindustry Business Confidence Index (EBCI) for current conditions is still historically low, only rising to 20 points. That represented a gain of 12 points from December's seven-year low, but it was still far below the break-even mark of 50 points, and is strongly suggestive of substantial deterioration in the business climate at the outset of the new year. Indeed, not a single survey respondent reported improved conditions in January. The index is a monthly survey of senior executives at electrical manufacturers published by the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA), Rosslyn, Va. Any reading under the 50-point break-even mark signals declining market conditions.
The EBCI for future North American conditions was little changed from last month, edging up a modest 1.5 points to 37.5 points. Though far above the cyclical low water mark of 17.5 points seen in the October aftermath of Wall Street's collapse, the index remained firmly in contractionary territory, which implies that though the rate of decline is expected by survey panelists to abate, the absolute level of business conditions is likely to continue to erode through mid-year. Conditions in the international markets were mixed:
- Latin America's current conditions dropped from 26.3 points to 21.4 points, a 4.9-point drop, while its future conditions gained a solid 6.8 points to 35.7 points.
- Europe saw a 2.1-point increase in current conditions from 20.6 points to 22.7 points. Future conditions dropped to 30.8 points from 33.3 points, a 2.5-point decrease.
- The Asia-Pacific region saw the most growth. Current conditions improved 9.2 points to 25 points and future conditions improved 9.1 points to 43.3 points from 34.2 points.