Editor’s Note. The government shutdown affected the U.S. economy in many more ways than Capitol Hill legislators probably expected. Anyone who depends on the monthly data collected by Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics or U.S. Census Dept., will have to wait a few weeks to get it because these governmental entities were all shuttered for the past few weeks. Electrical Marketing relies on government data for its monthly Electrical Price Index, housing reports and “The Marketplace: Key Figures,” and we will post this data as soon as it becomes available.
IHS Global spokesperson say government shutdown will cost U.S. economy $3.1 billion. Jim Dorsey, senior manager, media relations, for IHS Global Insight, Lexington, Mass., said in a media advisory that the three weeks of government shutdown will cost the economy $3.1 billion in GDP from lost government services. He also expects “some impact from lost private-sector jobs tied to the shutdown, as well as a loss of consumer and business confidence resulting from the debt-ceiling showdown.” The exact impact on the rest of the economy will be hard to measure until delayed economic data are released, he said.
ABI enjoys solid 1-point increase in August. The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) showed more acceleration in the growth of design activity nationally. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine- to twelve-month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA), Washington, D.C., reported the August ABI score was 53.8 points, up from a mark of 52.7 points in July. This score reflects an increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 points indicates an increase in billings).
“As business conditions at architecture firms have improved eleven out of the past twelve months, it is fair to say that the design professions are in a recovery mode,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker. “This upturn signals an impending turnaround in nonresidential construction activity, but a key component to maintaining this momentum is the ability of businesses to obtain financing for real estate projects, and for a resolution to the federal government budget and debt ceiling impasse.”
NAHB provides its own housing data for September. With the partial shutdown of the federal government preventing the U.S. Census Bureau from releasing a housing starts estimate for September, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), Washington, D.C., has prepared its own. NAHB estimates that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of construction for single-family homes was between 620,000 and 630,000 units in September. NAHB estimates that the pace of construction of multi-family units was an additional 255,000 to 270,000, bringing the anticipated pace of total housing starts in September to between 875,000 and 900,000 units.