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Architectural billings surged by 2.4 points in November, an indicator of growth 9 to 12 months out.
Architectural billings surged by 2.4 points in November, an indicator of growth 9 to 12 months out.
Architectural billings surged by 2.4 points in November, an indicator of growth 9 to 12 months out.
Architectural billings surged by 2.4 points in November, an indicator of growth 9 to 12 months out.
Architectural billings surged by 2.4 points in November, an indicator of growth 9 to 12 months out.

Electrical Marketing’s Leading Economic Indicators -- December 2016

Dec. 16, 2016
The November PMI registered 53.2 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the October reading of 51.9 percent. The New Orders Index registered 53 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from the October reading of 52.1 percent.

Purchasing managers more optimistic in November. The November PMI registered 53.2 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the October reading of 51.9 percent. The New Orders Index registered 53 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from the October reading of 52.1 percent. The report is a monthly survey of purchasing managers, is published by the Tempe, AZ-based Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. Any reading over 50 points indicates a growth environment.

AIA’s billings index surges 2.4 points in October. After consecutive months of contracting demand for the first time in four years, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) saw a modest increase in demand for design services.  The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) published monthly by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) reflects the approximate nine- to twelve-month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending.

The AIA reported the October ABI score was 50.8, up from the mark of 48.4 in the previous month. This score reflects a slight increase in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings).  The new projects inquiry index was 55.4, down sharply from a reading of 59.4 the previous month. AIA’s Sector analysis was: Multi-family residential (51.2) commercial/ industrial (49.8), mixed practice (49.5), institutional (49.1)

“There was a collective sense of uncertainty throughout the design and construction industry leading up to the presidential election,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker.  “Hopefully we’ll get a sense of where we will be headed once we get a clearer read on how the new administration’s policies might impact the overall economy as well as the construction industry.”

Capacity utilization stuck in neutral. The Federal Reserve’s November data for Total Industry capacity utilization dropped 0.4% in November and is down 0.7 year-over-year. Any mark over 80% is an indicator that there’s a need for additional factories and industrial facilities. This indicator has changed less than one percentage point over the last five months.

Leading Economic Index edges up marginally in October. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1% in October to 124.5 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2%  increase in September, and a 0.2% decline in August.

Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board, said, “Although its six-month growth rate has moderated, the index still suggests that the economy will continue expanding into early 2017. The interest rate spread and average weekly hours were the main drivers of October’s improvement, helping to offset some of the weaknesses in claims for unemployment insurance and new orders.”

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