Building permits slide in March with single-family permits down -5.7%.
March building permits were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,458,000, -4.3% below the revised February rate of 1,523,000, but +1.5% above the March 2023 rate of 1,437,000. Single‐family authorizations in March were at a rate of 973,000; -5.7% below the revised February figure of 1,032,000.
Leading indicators point to U.S. economy’s fragile nature
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by -0.3% in March 2024 to 102.4 (2016=100), after increasing by +0.2% in February. Over the six-month period between September 2023 and March 2024, the LEI contracted by -2.2% — a smaller decrease than the -3.4% decline over the previous six months.
“February’s uptick in the U.S. LEI proved to be ephemeral as the Index posted a decline in March,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, The Conference Board’s senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, in the release. “Negative contributions from the yield spread, new building permits, consumers’ outlook on business conditions, new orders and initial unemployment insurance claims drove March’s decline.
“The LEI’s six-month and annual growth rates remain negative, but the pace of contraction has slowed. Overall, the Index points to a fragile — even if not recessionary — outlook for the U.S. economy.
“Rising consumer debt, elevated interest rates and persistent inflation pressures continue to pose risks to economic activity in 2024. The Conference Board forecasts GDP growth to cool after the rapid expansion in the second half of 2023.”
ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator increase in March
Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) reported that its Construction Backlog Indicator increased to 8.2 months in March from 8.1 months in February, according to an ABC member survey conducted March 20 to April 3. The reading is down 0.5 months YOY. ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu said, “Backlog is down over the past year for every region except for the Middle States, which now has the second largest backlog of any region. The South continues to have the largest backlog despite a large decline over the past year.”
