Wall Street Journal lauds NEMA economists for hitting the bull's-eye with their forecasts
The economic forecasting team for the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA), Rosslyn, Va., of economics, topped the The Wall Street Journal's (WSJ) economic forecasting survey for 2011. Each year the WSJ compiles forecasts of real GDP, inflation, interest rates, employment and other indicators from economists representing trade associations, financial and consulting firms, and academia. NEMA's forecasts for 2011 by Don Leavens, V.P. and chief economist, and Tim Gill, director, were the most accurate in aggregate of the 52 surveyed.
“In a year in which faulty government data threw just about everyone for a loop, it's nice to come out on top. A strong fourth quarter 2010 economic growth rate estimate by the government that was later revised sharply downward encouraged many economists to soften the level of their pessimism in early 2011,” said Leavens.
“Like other forecasters, we upped our growth forecast, but only modestly. Our restrained enthusiasm about growth coupled with a closer read on inflation and interest rates helped to sustain our forecast at the top,” added Gill.
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Jim Lucy Blog
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Jim Lucy has been wandering through the electrical market for more than 30 years, most of the time as an editor for Electrical Wholesaling, Electrical Marketing newsletter and CEE News. During that time he and the editorial team for the publications have won numerous national awards for their coverage of the electrical business. He showed an early interest in electricity, when as a youth he had an idea for a hot dog cooker. Unfortunately, the first crude prototype malfunctioned and the arc nearly blew him out of his parents' basement. Before becoming an editor for Electrical Wholesaling magazine and Electrical Marketing, he earned a BA degree in journalism and a MA in communications from Glassboro State College, Glassboro, NJ., which is formerly best known as the site of the 1967 summit meeting between President Lyndon Johnson and Russian Premier Aleksei Nikolayevich Kosygin, and now best known as the New Jersey state college that changed its name in 1992 to Rowan University because of a generous $100 million donation by N.J. zillionaire industrialist Henry Rowan. Jim is a Brooklyn-born Jersey Guy happily transplanted in the fertile plains of Kansas for the past 20 years.