Pike Research, in a study released today, makes the case that the market for commercial lighting will grow strongly through about 2021, when it will hit about $54 billion, then it will contract through the remainder of the '20s, back down to about $30 billion. Why? Solid state lighting.
LEDs will displace more than 52% of the global market for lamps in commercial buildings by 2021, Pike says. Then "the combination of declining prices for LED lighting and the accompanying extended lamp lifetimes will have the effect of shrinking the overall value of the market," said a release announcing the report.
Here's where you get the full study: “Energy Efficient Lighting for Commercial Markets” What do you think?